Saturday, December 29, 2007

Bullish picks for next week

Anything on this list came from a screener on bullish chart patterns with over 1,000,000 volume, and then was cross referenced to Navellier's stock grading system, and he denotes it as an A.

DO: Harami Bullish (same pattern AGU had when I sent out that e-mail, the JAN 150 calls are around $3.00 right now, and the 155's are under $2.00)

ELON: 3 white soldiers (the JAN 25 calls are less than $1.00)

TBSI: Reversing long downward trend (JAN 40 calls around $1.00)

ADM: 3 days at 52 week High (the 50 calls are around .50, the 45 calls are less than 3.00 and in the money.)

SDTH: New highs plus High earnings growth (no options available)

The following stocks showed up on a screener called Bull Bull Bull, which wasn't specific as to what it was screening, other than "strong stocks exhibiting strength). Some good stocks show up on it though.

AMSC
CYBS
DE
HES* (showed up on my screener last week too)
MOS
POT
SOLF
TSL
ZOLT

So, here are a few notes from my portfolio grader analysis.

ADM and SDTH have the best cash flow.

TBSI had the best overall scores, only 2 areas were not an A. Unfortunately they also had the worst cash flow.

I will definitely be playing DO calls next week. ELON calls are cheap so I may throw in a few of those too I haven't decided.

As for the rest, I'm going to spend some more time this weekend, and pick one or two to add to my IRA.

FRO has a great dividend (12%) and is also on my watch list for IRA.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

12/24/2007-12/28/2007 Round Trip Options

I was planning on taking Christmas week off, but couldn't resist popping in a couple of times to make some trades.

12/24/07
AGU calls gain 1.05

12/27/07
RIMM puts gain .45
SOLF puts lose .70

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

12/17/07 - 12/21/07 Roundtrip Option Plays

Hope you all had a great holiday. We had an eventful one. Thought I would take some time to catch up on my bookkeeping today, including a few missing tracking posts on this blog.

12/21/07 was option expiration, so I did more equity trades than option trades this week, but for what it's worth, here they are.

12/17/07
RIMM puts gain 1.00
PCU calls loss .50
GOOG call loss 1.40
GOOG call loss .60

12/18/07
GOOG puts loss 1.00
GOOG calls loss .50
RIMM calls gain .50
GS puts gain 1.00

12/19/2007
FWLT calls loss .20
MS loss .20

I finally got smart after the 19th and stopped playing options the rest of the week. As you can see I had more losing than winning trades this week, further demonstrating that not playing options on expiration week is a good idea.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

12-10-07 to 12-14-07 Round Trip Option Plays

This post is a summary of the round trip option plays that I made this week. While it does not include all trades I made this week, I am throwing in option plays that I held over one night. While these are technically not round trips, I am going to include them in this first posting anyway, since I am still getting the hang of doing these round trip option trades.

By date

12/10/07
*GOOG puts gain 2.59

12/11/07
POT puts gain .35

12/12/07
POT calls gain 1.00 (held overnight)
POT calls gain .70

12/13/07
GOOG puts gain .50
GOOG calls gain .20
RIMM calls gain .30 (held overnight)

12/14 (Friday before option expiry, time decay killed my gains on these two).
PCU puts gain .20
RIMM puts gain .30

OK, after posting all these in one place I see that I have made gains on all of my round trips. I think part of this is because I have been holding some of my bad plays over before this week, instead of taking the loss the day I bought. I want to be up front that I am transitioning to this type of trading right now, and I do not expect to have only gains on every trade I make every week.

*Note: Since Google options are much more expensive than the other options I play, their target is higher. Also, this is the first week I have traded GOOG options, so I made a few rookie mistakes on the trades I made on the 13th. Most notably, GOOG options go in 10 increments, instead of 5, so they resist differently.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Round Trip Options

Well, after a couple of months of trial and error, I am finding that I have the most success with round trip option plays. What this means is that I pick an option play (or two) and execute the buy and the sell both within that trading day. This is definitely not a strategy to try if you are working a full time day job, since it is based on following the momentum of a moving stock, and jumping on and off within the swing.

My mantra has been no fear, no greed in order to get myself to an even playing field on the market. The problem with that combination, is that I am limiting my upside, and not my downside. By not selling within the same day if the stock is not moving the way I thought it would, I end up holding bad option plays, sometimes for weeks and losing an incredible amount of time value.

Another thing to note is that time decay seems to speed up starting the Friday before option expiry, and can be felt even within the day. This holds true for options out a month as well, as I found out yesterday when I played some January puts on a couple of round trips.

My current way of handling my round trips is that I find an in on an option by watching the corresponding stocks level twos. Once my order is filled I immediately put in a sell order for 1.00 gain. I continue to watch the stock, and if I feel for some reason that target is not achievable within the time frame of one day, then I will lower that target appropriately.

My current problem seems to be with minimizing my downside. I put in an alert to sound if the bid on my option reaches a point that is 1.00 less than what I asked, and make the necessary strategic adjustments. This is a kind of feel thing, however, since the market can turn on a dime these days.

Anyway, I started my own board on IHub to see if I can find other people that do this type of trading to share ideas with here.

Roundtrip Options

I have decided to post my weekly round trip results here on the blog, and link the message box to the post for that week for anyone that is interested in following my progress. I have decided to use the dollar gain per share per contract on the posts. I do not always buy the same number of contracts, or spend the same dollar amount in total, so using percentages on their own could be deceiving I think.

Good fortune!


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Merry December Everyone!

Did that sound forced? If it did it is because it is.

December is historically a difficult month for me. I tend to either fall ill or injure myself. This time it was an injury.

Anyway, I have been trading every day, and learning a lot. I have a few bad trades to clean out of my account the best that I can the next week, and then I'm taking some time off trading until the beginning of the year to spend with hubby and do the Christmas thing with some family and friends.

I have a lot of information that I need to document soon on what I have learned this past month, but I'm not going to attempt that on these pain killers!

Have a wonderful Holiday season, and I should be back to more regular updates after the New Year.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Dow slips another 237 points


The DOW closed today at 12743.44. Since April 4, 2008, it has only dipped this low on one day in August, the 16th to be exact.

While I am not one to panic, holding firm in the face of adversity sure isn't working for me. I have a fist full of calls that I purchased in November, that are losing time value as we speak as I keep waiting for the graceful out that never comes. As my portfolio diminishes in size, I have to seriously consider taking some losses, and not having any regrets when the market bounces back. I've limited my day trading to one trade a day, and have found myself on the wrong side of every trade I have made since last Wednesday. I have several stocks that I watch, I try to determine which direction they are moving, and jump on and off before they reverse. Unfortunately I have picked the wrong stock each day to trade, which is only exacerbating the losses that I am feeling from the calls I am holding, and adding to my feelings of frustration.

Today was RIMM calls. I had a several opportunities to get out with a small gain or loss, before the end of day plummet. Despite my original plan to sell at whatever I could get at the end of the day, I have seen the market rebound from these big losses each of the past three Tuesdays, so I am holding this one overnight, and going to look for a reasonable out before the 10:30 dip.

Wish me luck my friends, I'm going to need a fistful of it if I am going to survive the December option month. The bear is coming at me, whether I want to believe it or not.

Note: Learned today from Navelliers blog that Mutual Fund tax year ends on October 31, so fund managers have already done their year end tax sales. This is a perfect time for them to be scooping up the blue chip bargains.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Monday, November 19, 2007

DOW closes below 13K for the first time since August

The market continues it's downward spiral, and my account continues to follow suit. I've lost all hope of recovering to even by the end of the month, and at this point will be happy to not bust out. I ended today back at the level I was last Monday. The best that I can hope for at this point, is a modest rebound similar to what occurred last Tuesday.

My big surprise for today was HTE's break down to under $23.00. I really thought it had hit bottom. My 401K cash out still has not occurred, which is a mixed blessing at this point. Since the market is down, so is my account, so cashing out now will give me less cash to fund my Rollover IRA with, however with the market hitting new lows, there are also some excellent buying opportunities, such as HTE.

PCU tested 101 a couple of times today, to finish just above at 102. It did reach the lowest levels it has seen since mid August, however, so it's hard to tell if the ride down is finished. IF it breaks through 101, the next support level is 95.

High volatility on low trading is blamed somewhat on Thanksgiving. Each day shows me how much I still have to learn. I really felt that this would be an up week coming off of options expiration. In fact, I purchased a bucket full of what I thought were cheap calls last week, to find find them crushed today. Lesson learned again there.

All I can say is that if I can survive this next few weeks, this costly education may pay off. I just hope I have a "chip and a chair" when this volatile DOW finally settles down.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Is there a place for empathy in the stock market?

So, I am checking on the after hours news regarding my stocks and options. Copper is up due to an earthquake in Chile. My initial reaction? Great! Those PCU options that expire on Saturday may be worth something after all! Since I own the stock and some December calls as well, this is a big score from me, in a month where my portfolio has taken a beating, great news!

And then I read further.

"A powerful earthquake hit mineral-rich northern Chile on Wednesday, killing at least two people, injuring more than 100 and halting output at some of the world's largest copper mines."

and

Authorities said an 88-year-old woman was killed when a wall fell on top of her in Tocopilla. A 54-year-old woman also died in the small city, although the cause of death was not immediately clear.
Alway


Buildings crumble, people are trapped in the rubble, people injured, people dead, there homes and belongings in a shambles. From their misery, their pain, their bad fortune, I will make money.

I love everything about my new job as a day trader, everything but this.



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Update on HTE

HTE may have bottomed out at 23.00. I almost doubled my HTE holding today at $23.50. I am averaged in at 23.22. The stock closed today at 23.48. At this price point it pays a 20.18% dividend. It doesn't get much simpler than this if you are looking for an income producing investment.

And frankly, while it sometimes takes a while for HTE to bounce back, it always does, because people can't resist that dividend, and it is guaranteed until February. If you dig a little deeper, and learn what a trust is about, and review their past dividend dispersement, if you are like me, you will see this as a guaranteed top end income producer, every month, until 2011, at the soonest! If you don't grab this one someone else will, and the price will go up. The funny part is even if it goes to $30.00 a share, it is still paying a 10% dividend! Where else are you going to get that?

In fact, I am so confident that this stock is going to move upward in price, that I purchased the February 30 calls for .25 apiece today to compliment the extra shares I bought. Check out their website.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

It's only a loss if you sell it

Strong stocks will come back, and POT did just that. Pot made a maneuver similar to this one last August when the market turned downward. I have every confidence that this one will revisit that $125 range.



Like I said yesterday, there was no conceivable reason other than panic and profit taking that people sold this stock Monday. Anyway, by close of day on Monday my contracts were worth about .40 apiece. I have made a deadline to sell these options by close of the market on Thursday. In order to maximize the amount of the investment that I can recoup, I decided to sell the calls in 6 lots. Two lots each day Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. At any time that I can get between $6.00 and $7.05 a contract before end of trading Thursday, I will close out my position. I will use market daily trends to chose the proper time to sell. The first lot of the day will sell the third time I get a bounce off an option resistance level. That happened around $2.50 today, and I got my sell in for $2.30. As the end of the day approached, I had a bounce off $2.60, and sold it when it hit the second time. The last trade of the day was $2.00.

While these sales still netted me a loss from my average in on these calls, I was still pleased with the amount of money I recouped from my closing price on Monday. You have no idea how glad I was that I didn't panic. So, 1/3 of my POT 115 calls have been liquidated, and I have 2/3 more to try and optimize over the next couple of days.

My new rule is that all options for the current month are cashed on the Friday prior to option expiry week. If I want to play options week, I'll play with the following months options. It's less nerve wracking!

I gained back about 30% of yesterdays loss today. My portfolio is still down 28.8% for the month. It will be a challenge to get back into the black before the end of November, and plan and prepare a holiday meal for my in laws on Thanksgiving! Wish me luck!

Good Fortune.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Monday, November 12, 2007

My first month of option trading is almost over.

Option trading is definitely not for the faint of heart, or the fumbled of fingers. That slip on POT last week has all but crippled me today. While the DOW only dropped 55 points, POT fell 16 points on no news. In fact they just released their third quarter results last week, and they were sterling.

Every where I look though, high dollar stocks are taking big losses. Of course like I said, it's only a loss if you sell it...Except with options.

My intent was to go into the last week of options without holding any, as I knew this would be a volatile week, and I am so new to this. But with my POT options down fourteen percent, I figured I would wait until Monday. It might be an up day after all, with the market selling off so sharply Friday afternoon.

So I got up nice and early, made my coffee, read my message boards, some news articles, and e-mailed a bit with my dad. 9:30 am eastern came, and my eyes were peeled, watching my POT and PCU level II's. I watched the Dow head up, and POT plummet, for what reason I still don't know, testing 110. You can't even sell options until 9:45 eastern. Those 15 minutes were some of the most helpless I have ever felt. There I sat, watching the investment I had inadvertently doubled up on, plummet before I could do anything about it.

Had I known then what I know now, I would have taken first hit and sold when I came on, because as the day progressed, while the DOW slowly rose, POT kept getting battered. When it tested 110 the second time, I decided to buy the puts, as there was no support for another 10 points. I found an out where I made a 74 ROI on that investment. Some sold after mine for .20 higher, but then the stock headed back up, and the options back down. I was ready for at least a bit of a rally. Nothing. As the day neared end, I was able to pick up some 100 puts on the cheap. By the end of the day the stock was down over 16 points. I have been checking in all night, looking for any sign of why POT got hit so hard. I looked at my portfolio, and realized my blue chips were getting battered. NOV, PCU, MDR, and some I didn't own anymore, FWLT, DRYS, RIMM. Heck, even GOOG was down 35 points!

So, what will tomorrow bring? Well, I see no reason for POT to have dropped 16 points, but there is also nothing holding it up at the 100 level. POT may see 90 before the week is over. If it does, I'm ready for it. However, a part of me can't help but see the game. You scare people out of their trades on Monday, dropping the price 16 in one day, and then you have 4 days to make that 16 back. Well, it could happen. At this point, the worse thing that could happen to me, is that POT languishes in this 100-105 area for the next 4 days. That being said, the worse case scenario is that I loose the money I invested on that downside, which would bring my losses to 27% instead of 25. Worth the risk when you are looking at no support for another 12 points. While you can't really judge how a day is going to go based on after hours, there were a lot of sales of POT in the 100-101 dollar range, so the mild resistance at 101 has already been test, technically.

Or I could lose it all by Friday. I'll keep you posted. I am playing the downside as well, on this one, to try and minimize my losses. My portfolio took a dramatic hit today. With last weeks losses my portfolio is at the lowest level I have seen since opening this account in February. I am down 37.5% so far in the month of March. So much for making that 10% gain this month! The good news is, that some of that is in stock I still own, so the money is recoverable eventually. Stocks, took a beating across the board. The harsh part was the options. 25% of this months options expire on Friday. I have 4 days to recoup as much of that as I can, lick my wounds, and come out punching in December.



I'm slowly purchasing a contract here and there of these battered stocks, to try and catch a Christmas bounce.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Will the DOW test 12K?

That is what the Rainman predicts...

The road ahead is grim, but of course it is not forever. The market is correcting, and there is a couple ways to deal with it. One is to bail out of everything, and then reinvest once the market reverses again. Of course, that sell off leads to further panic and more sell off. The other way is to invest in solid companies, and hold on to them, knowing that they will come back in the long run. That has been my way of handling this, and they do always come back, and usually more than make up for their losses.

So, will Monday begin the buy back process, or will it be another down day? With options coming up on Friday, anything can happen. While I am enjoying my new found option trading, I am more heavily invested in calls than I expected to be going into this last week before option expiration. I will be planted at my computer Monday morning looking for some graceful outs, and hoping not to lose too much money.

My biggest guffaw where my POT calls. I was certain that it had strong resistance at 120. Comedy of errors, and next thing you know an order that I thought I had canceled, had actually been filled. Now I have two sets of POT calls that I have to find a way to unload. Sometimes I do too much thinking with my keyboard...

On a brighter note, my CROX calls that I had written off are starting to see some renewed life, so I may be able to recoup some of that. Navellier is still considering CROX a strong buy, how much it will rebound by Friday is up in the air though.

MVO has probably been my most stable investment through all of this. It's approaching it's one year in existence, and people may be starting to see it's potential as a steady income investment. Read more about my opinion of MVO here.

Well, I have a lot of research to get done before the market opens, so I'll leave you with this thought. It's not really a loss, unless you sell it. Good Fortune.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Spotlight on HTE

HTE:

I've mentioned this one before. Harvest Energy Trust is a Canadian Trust. The Alberta tax initiative passed, so the dividend for this stock lowered from about .38 Canadian a share to .30. (Dividend is paid monthly). What's funny is, that with the weakening dollar, I actually get .32 US for this, while I was getting .36 US before. When this came out last night the stock was at $28.00. At that price, the dividend yield was still 12%!

Well, some people panicked today, between that news and the DOW going down, and the stock plummeted to $25.70. That makes the dividend yield on this over 15%!!

Is it at the low? I am not sure, option week is next week, so the market will still be volatile. I am guessing you will be able to purchase this somewhere between $22 and $25 sometime in the next week.

With that dividend yield, the price wont last long. I'm snatching some up with my IRA money, if that check ever gets here. ::)

Anyway, always do your due diligence, but when the dust settles, and the market heads back up, (which it always does eventually) this one will be back in the $27 to $30 dollar range, plus you will be getting an estimated dividend of $3.60 per year.

Here is a link to their dividend history.

Good Fortune!

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

I thought I learned to lay golden eggs

But figured out today that I had just eaten some glitter.

At one point the DOW was down more 200 points today, but it made a comeback from three to four pm. That rally at the end of the day did more emotional damage to me than the 200 point drop did. Option trading isn't for sissys!

Anyway, it was just what the doctor ordered. My portfolio took a nice little hit which knocked my feet firmly back on the ground. So far my portfolio is down 6.87% for the month, so if I want to make my dream goal of 10% a month, I'm going to have to do some pretty smooth moves to make that happen. I'll keep you posted!

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

DOW down 360 points!!!

Are you panicked? I'm not. Are you stupid? Valid question that will become clear within a few months, I think.

Anyway, first of all, DOW had gained over 150 points yesterday, and like I posted, yesterday was huge for me. The dow did take back some of my gains, but not all of them. How does the DOW drop more than twice as much but my loses don't?

Option trading. I made another sweet trade today, this time it was a day trade on NILE that netted me a 20% ROI.

I think the DOW will go up tomorrow, as traders bought beaten down stocks at the end of the day at bargain prices, and push them back up tomorrow to make their profits.

The other reason that I am not panicking is because I am not selling my core investment holdings at this time. I have some dividend payers, and some blue chips (some are both) for steady growth and income on this portfolio. I know that they will regain ground, and then some when the market recovers. How you may ask? Because they did when this happened in the spring, and again in the summer. In the mean time, if I can execute one or two option plays a day successfully, that 10% return per month is well within my grasp.

Someone pinch me, surely I'm dreaming.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

HTE

HTE has been a big winner for me, as I've said before. Both with it's dividend, and with it's growth. The next quarters worth of monthly dividends should be announced along with the November quarterly financial reports. I am showing a date of November 8th for that announcement on Ameritrade, but not finding the confirmation on their website.

Anyway, if you have been watching for an in on this one, watching close this week and next would be a good idea. I'm looking for an out, not because I don't believe in this stock, but because it has increased in value enough since I bought it that selling it at around the $31.00 level is the same as collecting the next several years dividends in advance.

While I probably wont be looking to add it back to this portfolio, it is definitely on my watch list for my IRA (the check hasn't arrived yet, grrrr.)

You can see that I added a couple of short term calls to my portfolio, CROX and PCU. I added CROX, because my girl Lizzy at IHUB likes it, and so does my favorite stock guru, Louis Navellier. The PCU, because I have been watching this stock and learned so many lessons from it, I decided to test and see what I had really learned.

We will talk about the CROX calls another day (or not, hehe). PCU on the other hand, bang - zoom! I was so in tune with PCU today, that my dad was on e-mail with me watching the level 2's to keep me honest. (Thanks Dad!) I kept telling him what was going to happen for the next 15 to 30 minute interval, and if it happened what would happen for the next hour. I think we were both in shock with how eerily my predictions came through. I'm staying as grounded as I can, but it's times like this that it's hard not to believe I can't fly. *wink*

Anyway, at one point I decided to sell half my PCU contracts for double what I paid, so my remaining contracts are free and clear. PCU went up over $2.00 a share in the after hours. If tomorrow is an up day, (this stock likes it when the DOW is on the rise) I am going to estimate that this stock goes up another $3.00-5.00 a share sometime between open and close tomorrow. That's if the DOW goes up...it will be interesting to see.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Ana Crisan - Off Topic

Ana is a 20 year old artist in Toronto. Ana is homeless. This is her story.

Ana's flickr album: There are 241 pages in this album. They are all worth a look. The first few pages may are of the Zombie Walk 2007. New subject matter starts on page 8.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anacrisan/

She has a lot of great animal and people photos. Here is one of my favorites.

I like a lot of her self portraits.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anacrisan/page199/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anacrisan/126031867/

This is her blogspot, if you made it this far, I'm assuming she has moved you.

http://spiritedaway420.blogspot.com/



Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

October Review Part 2

As I said in part one, I was very pleased with my October results. Here are a few of the things that I learned in October.

1. Have a structured investment plan, with percentages of money allocated for different goals / risk levels. I could be wrong, but I believe that at my level, having my money in one account maximizes my buying power. However, since I have multiple needs that need to be met, I needed an investment plan allocating percentages of money to both investing and trading.

2. It is ok to use margin responsibly. The amount of money I paid this month in interest was a tiny fraction of what I made by utilizing it instead of selling stocks at the wrong time.

3. Do not sell investment stocks as they move up.

4. Your percent gain on a trade is expected to be much less than on an investment, therefore your percent acceptable loss needs to be less. At my level, I'm looking to make about 3 to 5% on a trade. When I started trading I was allowing for about a 10% loss like I do on my investments. This was a huge faux pas. The loss tolerance needs to be commiserate with my target gain.

5. I personally, at my currently level of ability, am able to watch 3 stock level two charts for trading. I currently am trying to watch the charts for 7 stocks. This may be doable some time in the future, but not today.

6. Learn a few stocks rhythms, and trade them. I'm currently only trading upswings, but once you get good at that you can trade the same stock in both directions.

7. Do not invest or trade stocks that you have lost money in before, just because you like the stock.

8. When trading, find the trade channel. Buy low, sell high within the channel.


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Happy Halloween! October Review, Part I

Well, my blog here is one month old, and I have now been trading full time for about 3 weeks. In part one of this review, I am just going to lay out some October stats. In part two which I will put together this weekend, I will write up a more comprehensive review of what worked, and what I learned.

One thing that I learned today, and worked well for me, is when dealing with the short term, momentum trades, if you get in late, you need to get out early.

On October 1 the DOW opened at 13895.71. On October 31 the DOW closed at 13930.01. That's a gain of 34.30 points, or .25%.

While I wont be disclosing the dollar amounts of my portfolio, I will say that my portfolio had a total gain of 10.25% for the month of October. I do take money out for household expenses this month, so my net portfolio gain was 7.10%. I must say that I am extremely pleased with these results. I set myself a "dreamer" goal of a 10% portfolio increase each month, which translates to an amazing 120% annualized. That's buy a house on the coast and retire kind of cash, if it could be maintained. In reality, I would be doing fine to make 10% or so a year after expenses. What that works to for this first year, is a 30% annualized return, or 2.5% increase per month total. I know that every month is not going to be an up month. I know that I will have months when things look bleak, but I have to say, when I can beat the DOW by 10% when I am just starting out, you have to know that it gives me a great deal of confidence that my goals are attainable.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Short Term Plays

Well, they are coming at me fast and furious, and I'm not really taking any of my own advice. One of the things that I did decide, however, is that I am no longer going to be including them in my portfolio on the blog. I will just limit that to my long term hold items. I need to save time where I can, I'd like to be able keep up with everything working 50 hours a week, but as my absence for a couple of trading days shows, it's not happening with everything I'm trying to do right now, so I need to trim some redundancies. I will from now on only add a ticker to my portfolio if I have bought it as a long term investment, or held it for more than a week if it was initially considered a short term.

I have mixed emotions about how my short term trading is currently going. I don't seem to have my timing down, and I'm trying to watch too many at once, which means that I am not decreasing the number of stocks in my portfolio, which has been a goal for a few weeks now.

Another goal is to get up at 5 am, and it's midnight now. I am going to run through and update my portfolio on here, and then check out for the night.

Fed comes out with the interest rate announcements tomorrow, I'm hoping that it will end the day on a positive note. I have several short term positions sitting on the brink of their upside targets. While I've been holding them longer than I had planned, I only have a couple that I think will end up being losers. Time will tell!

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

FLML ~ My favorite mistake

FLML is my favorite mistake, for the day anyway. This day trading is not for the timid or weak of spirit that is for sure.

As you can see by the chart below, I bought in around mid day (when I thought price would be good) at 11.17. It proceeded to head south, and then kept bouncing up to just under my price, and then go down again all afternoon. Disheartened that my timing was so poor, I stupidly put a sell order in for just a bit over my price at 11.23. Since there was at resistance at 11.25, I figured I would get a sell in before it bounced down again, in case I missed it.



Well, it worked in one way, that I did make 6 cents a share. The only problem is that had I not had that sell in I wouldn't have even see it hit 11.23 as it blew past it on it on the way up to the 12.75 area. I missed out on an additional 1.50 per share profit at least, on the sell side, and 40 to 50 cents on the buy side as well, had I been more patient.

So, the rainmans advice to me (thanks goingin60) was

"the mkt trades best 8am-10:30 then 3 pm to 4 pm-
itll be in my book-
Rainman 101 for daytraders"
You can see that had I purchased this stock anytime between 8 and 10:30 and sold anytime on the way down off of 12.75 I would have maximized the profit and made much more than 6 cents on this trade, making it worth the round trip I took.

So, if I am going to learn to play these momentum stocks, I think that I need to make a few adjustments to my strategy.

First, I need to get up at 5 am instead of 6. I am not getting up and running quick enough to get in on the ground floor of these momentum moves. Next, I need to choose one stock to follow the momentum of for the day, and try to get in before 10:30 (7:30 my time). Third, watch throughout the day, but I need to assume the sell point is going to happen either the between 3 and 4 that day, or the next morning. Lastly, do not make the buy and sell on the same day unless there is a doubt that it will hold up for sale in the am.

Now, for the 4 short term trades I am still holding, and at a loss.

EGHT: Went up 5 cents in after hours, so it is down 2% since I purchased it at 1.48. It has to break resistance at 1.52. Earnings are being released on November 1, next Thursday, after market close at 4:30. I feel at this point I may as well commit another week to this stock to see what earnings release gets me. I'm a little nervous with the after hours release time. However, if this makes any kind of run past resistance at 1.52, I will

GNVC: Up 4 cents in after hours to 2.50, down 6% since my investment. This one is posing a difficulty for me to exit. While it has been trending mostly downward, it is staying above the support at the 50 day moving average. I don't even care about losing some money on this one at this point. I just want to minimize the loss the best I can. In fact, now that I have typed that out, I realize that the loss I would take at 2.50 is acceptable to me at this point, so I have put a sell order in for that amount. If it clears, I have one less stock to track, if it goes higher, oh well. I have no signs pointing to any upward momentum on this stock. Part of me would like to put the sell price at 2.55, as it has been at or above that price the past few days, however the more practical side of me says I don't want to lose the opportunity to get this one out of my portfolio over 5 cents.

NCST: Currently my biggest headache. No action, no news, the chart looks horrible. I am down 16% on this one as it stands at $2.31, and I have no support again until 2.16. I've got resistance at 2.50 and 2.63, and I have to get up to 2.75 just to break even on this one. To add insult to injury, this is the largest of my 4 short term investments that I have had longer than I anticipated, and I have no idea how to divest myself of it. Interestingly, 75% of the shares of this company are held by insiders or 5% owners.

TVIN is my last. It is down 25% since I bought it, and the chart doesn't look too hot. Earnings release are out on Nov. 8th, so 2 weeks from now. It's late, and I need to go to get up early, so I'll look at this more tomorrow.




Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

PCU

By the way, I was able to get back in on PCU. Cost me about 4.50 a share more than I got for the covered calls, but I'm already up 6.95% since yesterday. If you haven't looked at the chart on this one yet, look now. This stock has increased 159% in price alone this year, and on top of that it pays a $1.60 a share dividend quarterly. While the shows an occasional price dip from time to time, that's just a buying opportunity, it shows no evidence of slowing down.







Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

ISV

Still having trouble resisting the short term plays, even though I am sitting on a 3 that are down right now (EGHT, GNVC, NCST). Got in on a few shares of ISV for fun at $1.28.

By the way, got into MDR at 43.90, and am up almost 5% already in just a little over 24 hours. Can't beat that. I still think this is a safe play up to about $50.00.




Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

McDermott International Inc ~ MDR

So, I had written 3 covered call options that expired on Friday. PCU got exercised, the other two did not. The exercise of PCU, left a big hole in my 30% allocation for blue chip growth. While I do need to cut back in other areas, I feel that I need to keep the blue chip growth allocation portion of my portfolio maxed, in order to get the most bang for my money, so I have spent this evening reviewing some options, and decided to invest in MDR.

Click here to review a business summary outlined by Yahoo. I just got home from spending the weekend with family in the Bay Area, so I am going to quickly lay out my reasons for choosing this stock, and then get to my review of my sell list, which wasn't done after close on Friday.

First of all, Friday was the 20th anniversary DATE of the crash of 1987 (the 20th anniversary DAY however falls on Monday). The fearful converted to cash in case history decided to repeat itself. Then this came out,

13:50 Morgan Stanley says crude oil "likely to come down sharply"; has "overshot fundamentals" - Bloomberg.
and across the board, Oil stocks started dropping, some in the double digit percentage points. I'm seeing that keeping your head while other's panic is a key component to this game. I'm seeing this as a huge buying opportunity in the oil industry, so I decided to look for a new blue chip in that realm to invest in. I could have increased my position in NOV, but decided against it, as it is already a good size portion of my overall portfolio.

Technically, the chart for MDR looked good. It has had two splits in the past 2 years, one on 9/11/07, and another on 6/1/06. The 10 day displaced moving average has been above the 50 day since 8/10/07. I calculated the return this year, using Fridays closing number which had taken a $5.00 a share hit from the previous day, and found that even with that 8.42% loss in one day, the stock price had increased in value by an amazing 148% in one year! Digging a little further, I found that the stock had doubled in price between the months of May and October. That's 100% ROI in 5 months, which would be 240% annualized.

Now, MDR has announced that it will have an earnings call on November 8th, 9am eastern time. There is always some risk in purchasing a stock before earnings but here are a few points that I have found that I feel limit that risk.

Positive surprises equate into higher stock prices. MDR has had positive surprises on 11 out of their last 13 announced earnings, and has exceeded earning estimates for the third quarter in all 3 of the past 3 years. Back to the chart, the 50 day low is 54.09, and I see support around 54.00. With those two things in mind, and my willingness to risk up to 10% of my investment, I have decided that a buy price below $59.49 is acceptable for this investment. Since I am very unsure of how the market will react tomorrow (where there be more panic, or will the sharks be snapping up all the bargains they can once they realize the sky didn't fall), I am going to low ball my bid at about $54.25. That is down a bit from both the Friday close of $54.35 and the after hours price of 54.77, but above my support support number. I wont be disappointed if I don't get in at this price, but I am going to bottom fish for it a little bit before I chase it up.





Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Portfolio review continued.

Well, I managed to only purchase one new stock today, and sold off 3 (VM, LTUS, and GHDX). Didn't make my goal of just selling, but at least the net of the transactions was in the correct direction.

I did a little soul searching last night after I got locked out of here, and made a more concrete plan on my portfolio asset allocations.

35% Growth/Income: Current allocation in line, includes T, HTE, MVO, and UNWPX. I wont be adding to these positions, other than dividend reinvestments. I am looking to sell HTE in the $30-$34 dollar range. If I get that opportunity, I will find a replacement for it at that time.

30% Blue Chip Growth: Current allocations in line, PCU, NOV, RCI , MIR and NRG. I will most likely lose PCU and MIR due to the covered calls that I have out against them (a mistake I wont make again). I will replace those with some new picks from Navelliers Blue Chip Growth, newsletter, due out on October 22nd.

10% Zip Code Changers: These are my buy and hold pipe dreams, which are actually under allocated at this point, but I will not be filling them in, until I get the last category reigned in. Currently holding LBWR, ZMRAF, and SYBR.

25% Value / Short Term Trades: Here is my real weakness. The ideas in this category have been coming at me fast and furious, and I have been like a kid in a candy store, completely without any impulse control. I likie, gimme, has been my mantra the past few weeks. My focus is on trimming this area. I reviewed ASTM, CSCA, EGHT, GAI, AND GNVC in my post last night (though part of the GNVC research got lost), so on those 5 I will be brief.

ASTM: News out regarding some stem cell research. I expect the gap to fill and then some. For fun I have a 1.39 sell order out there, which would give me a 25% return on a 3 day trade. Not sure if it will click that high though, as there may be some resistance around 1.27 and 1.32.

CSCA: Pulled back slightly on no news. I assume it's just a little profit taking before the 20 year anniversary. I still like this stock.

EGHT: Chart looks good, and up again in after hours to 1.52. This one just feels like it wants to take off.

GAI: This stock is still not exciting me. Down on volume, so it may be being manipulated. 65% shares held by insiders. Looking for a graceful exit.

GNVC: Up in after hours, no news, chart looks good. I like the technical on this since I don't see any real resistance until 4, other than perhaps a bit at 3.25.



NOEC: This one has been testing my resolve, since I posted about the swing trades I was planning on this post. It is going lower on low volume, and has inside shareholders at 59%. I have an 8.70 sell in, and while I don't know when it will hit that number again, I have little doubt at this point that it will. I do see some resistance at 7.50 that I have to contend with though.



PRX: Looking for an out. The chart looks terrible. This was a buy based on insider trades and a press release. Hasn't been a good move so far.

TGB: I like this stock so much, that I bought it again even though I have already lost money on it once this year. It reached new highs, and I jumped on, to immediately watch the price dwindle. It's a copper play, and I like metals. This one continues to haunt me. Looking for a graceful exit.



TRMA: My feelings haven't changed much on this one since the last time I posted on it. I'm looking for a sale on the downside of whatever happens between $38 and $43. I am hitting some resistance at $35.40 I need to break through now.



YHGG: This was a kid in a candy store buy. Looking for an out.



NCST: My short term buy for today. Chart looks good, and up in after hours. Support around $2.16 while my 10% loss is at $2.48. Fifteen day low at 2.16. I feel like I bought this one too high, chasing it.






So, my lessons for myself today begin with no more trigger buys off the short term board. At the minimum, I want to know what my 15 day low and support levels are, then I want to put in my buy price so that my 10% loss lands around those levels. I think this strategy will help me in many ways. First of all, it will make me pause and see if it is really prudent to add another stock to my portfolio. Second, when the stock is added, I wont have to decide where to stop, since I will have made that choice by my purchase price. Thirdly, I think that being a more technically choosy about picking a buy price than just looking at the current level two quotes, I will not be getting into as many stocks, which is part of what I need...to limit this kid in the candy store reaction I am having to the multitude of earning opportunities that present themselves to me each day.


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Wednesday already

This week has really gotten away from me. I've definitely started off on the wrong foot as far as documenting what is happening during my trading day, and what I'm finding out during my nightly recaps. In fact, last night I did not do my nightly review of my portfolio, most specifically those on my sell list, and it did end up with me missing the fact that a sell order had expired, and I missed my chance to get out of NOEC at a slight gain. Now, I have a really tough decision to make on that one, but we'll get to that in due time.

This post may end up being a little long winded, but I want to go through and document each item on my sell list tonight, instead of just highlighting a couple. Since is growing each day, instead of getting culled back to around 10 stocks like I had planned, I need to really sit down and go through why I am holding each of these stocks with a fine tooth comb. For simplicity, I am going through them in alphabetical order.

ASTM: Source: Short Term Traders board goingin60 (this board requires a paid membership).
Short term traders board has become my new favorite message board, and part of the reason that I am having trouble whittling down my portfolio. There are some great ideas posted on that board throughout the trading day.

Anyway, saw this one thrown out there this morning. I saw that it had gapped down, and decided to take advantage of the possible gap fill. AT 1.12 a share, it seemed that downside could be kept to a minimum.



Tonight I find that the reason the price had gapped down was due to this news article.

Aastrom Direct Offering to Raise $13.5M

My initial reaction is that that is a good thing, and I would expect a gap fill now that the offering has closed. However, being new to the intricacies of how this type of thing effects future stock pricing, this will be a good one for me to watch closely. Did this offering dilute the shares enough that it doesn't easily bounce back? It's times like these that I realize I am just a little baby on this investment learning curve.

CSCA: Source, another IHUB board member, Bobwins. I really like this guys thorough approach to his due diligence. I get more than just ideas from him, I feel like I am really learning something about the things that I need to be looking for in a stock, when I read his posts.

Anyway, I have nothing but great things to say about CSCA. It's up 13.88% since I my purchase on 10/5/07 (12 days ago) at 10.85. It is up a China play, which is why I have it on my sell list (which is basically the list I keep for stocks I need to watch closely). Still no new news since September 6th. Other than that, lots of new highs, and a gap up with a nice finish today. The chart speaks for itself.




EGHT: Source goingin60, yes, I trusted the rainman on this one.

I saw it approaching the resistance at 1.52, with leaps up in the past few days, and decided to go for it. While it closed at 1.48, the same price I had bought it for in the morning, it has reached 1.54 in after hours. There is an earnings call on November 1, which is scheduled for 4:30pm EST. I am curious if calls like that after market close generally are going to be giving bad news, while earlier day calls give good news? That would be an interesting statistic to track!

Anyway, gonna keep an eye on this one, but with the solid support I am seeing around 1.25 for this stock, it just really doesn't seem to have much of a downside at the price I got in at.



Financially, they are showing increases each quarter over the past year in both total revenue and gross profit.

Then we see multiple insiders purchasing stock in August, just before the release in September of

Santa Clara-based 8x8 (NASDAQ:EGHT - News) said its platform "will be the only brand presented and promoted to the roughly 12,000 subscribers who will be left without VoIP phone service after the company winds down its VoIP operations over the next three months."
I really can't think of anything more to add about this company. All the stars on this one seem to be aligned. I will watch it daily, and let it run. I'll sell it on the downhill side.

GAI: Another from the Short Term Trader board, and a friend, John. The chart is pulling back some, but on low volume. I've done my minimum digging around yahoo, and I'm not finding anything terribly compelling about holding on to this stock, other than the fact that 65% of it's shares are held by insiders. It's support is lower than I am comfortable with ($2.57), so I will be seriously reconsidering this position if it dips below 4.45 (10% loss on my investment).



GHDX: Source is vague on this one. It was a long term medical play I picked up from somewhere. The candle chart looks like it may be in for a downturn, including the 10 day moving average moving below the 50.



However it is supposed to be a long term play, and it has a few good points I may investigate further when I don't have so many stocks on my plate to look at. I will evaluate my position on this one if it breeches support at $19.00 (my cost was $19.25).

GNVC: Yet another gem from goingin60

Got in at 2.67. It closed at $2.82 and is up to 2.87 in after hours!

Well, I just spent the last 1/2 hour trying to unlock my computer. Apparently there is a limit to how heavily it will allow me to tax it. I know I had finished a write up on this stock, and started one on LTUS.

Well, folks, here it will have to end, as it is now after 1am, and I have to be up in less than 5 hours for stock market open. The fact that I am going to bed with 8 stocks unresearched alone should be proof that I am holding more stocks right now than I can realistically handle.

Here is hoping that I am successful tomorrow in gracefully exiting some of my lagging positions and resist the temptation of opening new ones. In fact, I will comit to myself right now that I will not even investigate a new stock pick until I have completed posting all of my findings on my sell list review.


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Stock Trader's Almanac

My Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 arrived today. A great way to start my first day as a full time trader. Yes, that's right, after being on vacation for a week, and comparing the results to the results that I was achieving working on my portfolio part time, I called my boss yesterday and quit my part time job. An added bonus is that I will get to roll over my 401K into an IRA and be able to have more control over that part of our retirement package, than choosing between a handful of mutual funds.

Anyway, the Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 has a lot of great features, and I think that it is a good an investment for anyone wanting to make a real go of investing. One of the things that it stresses is that you will have more investment success if you write things down. Going back to my original post regarding the purpose of this blog, I can see that I am on the right track if I want to be successful in this endeavor. The second key to me being on the right track, is that it denotes November through January as the best three month span, right in line with me taking the dive to do this full time.

Some features of the 2008 Almanac that I am digging right now are

*2008 year at a glance
This shows you days the market is closed, option expiration dates and major holidays. Also includes the 2009 year at a glance towards the back of the Almanac.

*One page for each trading week, broken down by day.
What a great feature! You can incorporate your appointment calendar into the Almanac, making it more likely that you are looking at it on a daily basis. This part of the almanac also includes holidays, market profitability numbers, option expiration days, and icons that show days that have been 60% bearish or bullish on average during the past 21 years. Interspersed between all of this are Monthly statistics, and references to check other parts of the almanac such as Investor Seasonalities.

*Directory of trading patterns
This is the main reason I bought this book, was for the directory of trading patterns. Some of the patterns go back as far as 1900. Others not quite as far based upon data available, or a noticeable shift in patterns has occurred due to changes in the investment community (for example 401K availability increases)

*Strategy Planning and Record Section
Some really good spread sheets and checklists in this section. I am sure that I will be incorporating some of these into my tracking.
Whether you are new to investing, or a seasoned investor, Stock Trader's Almanac 2008 combines in one place the tools you need to track and improve your game.

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Canadian Energy Trusts

Kiplinger ran an interesting article a week ago regarding Soaring Oil Trust Yields. Over 15% of my portfolio is in Harvest Energy Trust, who put out this latest press release. So, my dividends coming on October and November 15th are set in stone, but this is the first time in quite some time that HTE did not announce a quarters worth of dividends at one time.

I have known that I would possibly need to exit these positions some time in 2010, due to the Tax Fairness Plan, but the recent news of the Alberta tax increase from 25% to 30% has made me take pause. While I am not ready to abandon the consistent income and growth that I have achieved since my purchase of HTE, it has definitely led me to rethink my sell point.

Up until recently, last month, I was not reinvesting my dividends back into HTE. Best case scenario as I see it, the tax increase in Alberta of 5% translates to a dividend decrease of 5% to unit holders of HTE. Using that best case scenario, and my cost basis for the units that I currently hold, selling the units for $30.00 per share would net me the same amount as collecting dividends for the next 2 years. If I can squeeze $34.00 a share, that would be the same as collecting those dividends over a period of 3 years (putting us right before the January 1, 2010 Tax Fairness Plan kickoff).

HTE is on an upward swing. It has a 52 week high of 33.97. If it continues it's upward trend, I will sell at the best point I can find in that 30-34 dollar range.








Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Noteworthy events for my portfolio

While the dow dropped today, my portfolio increased by 1.42% today. That's over 500% annualized, if that type of increase was sustainable all year long.

Anyway, I wanted to document a few stand out events that are occurring for some of my stocks.

Starting with TRMA, this stock finally broke through the resistance it has been feeling at $34.00 today, to end the day at $34.30. This is the break through that I have been waiting for. While there has already been a bit of a pull back in after hours trading, I am staying optimistic that this is the beginning of the run up to the low 40 range for this stock. I have revised my support level on this stock to 31.85, and see minor resistance at 37 and 39, but then nothing holding it down until it hits around $43. Even with the sell off the other day, a decent portion of my portfolio is riding on this stock.



CSCA first caught my eye on IHUB and so far is not disappointing. Since 10/3 it has made new highs each every day except for Monday, though it did match the previous days high. While it tends to close quite a bit lower each day than the high, it is still moving up at a consistent rate that I am quite pleased with.



For sheer volatility, NOEC is unmatched in my portfolio. Intra day swings have been crazy!

10/1 5.83 - 6.98 O 6.10 C 6.64
10/2 6.26 - 6.90 O 6.57 C 6.26
10/3 6.50 - 8.81 O 6.60 C 7.945
10/4 7.83 - 9.60 O 8.50 C 8.50
10/5 7.49 - 8.80 O 8.71 - 7.65
10/8 7.25 - 8.19 O 7.88 C 7.84
10/9 7.31 - 8.19 O 7.31 C 8.19
10/10 7.56 - 8.74 O 7.57-8.20




Since the beginning of October, it has been at or below 7.50 6 times, and at or above 8.70 four times. While risky, this shows me an opportunity to make some money based on this intra day volatility. I have put in a sell order for my shares at 8.70. Once it sells, I will place a buy order for 7.50 and try and ride the price up again. That is a 16 percent gain each time I can capitalize on that price move. I'll keep you posted on how that works out.



Well, that was a lot of good news, now for the bad news that should be good news...PCU.

The number of mistakes I have made since I first saw this stock are astronomical. I talked about some of them in another post. My most recent mistake was to sell Covered calls against the PCU stocks that I had owned.

You see, historically, October is the worst month in the stock market. I had accumulated some shares of PCU since my last blunder sell of it, at an average price of 105.72 per share. Since October is historically a bad month for the market, I decided to sell covered calls against PCU to make a few extra bucks. I sold the 120 October calls for $2.40. PCU is now at 135.46 per share, and the calls I sold for $2.40 would cost me $16.00 to buy back. This is a very hard lesson learned, and while I will make money when those options are exercised on October 20th, unless something crazy happens in the next few days, I will be selling those shares for much less than they are worth.

As I said the last time I posted about PCU, the chart shows no signs of slowing down.



Special note to PCU: On my honor, if I ever have the opportunity to own you again, I promise to treat you right!

Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

China Plays

I picked up a couple of China plays on Friday. Both of them were from IHUB. CSCA applied for NASDAQ, and shareholders are currently voting on the acquisition of a profitable Chinese company. NOEC was the second China play I bought on Friday. Refer to my Wish List post for more information why I decided to pick this one up.

I reduced my position of TRMA by 40%. I was able to get 33.60 for it, which was very near the high for the day of 33.64. TRMA hasn't been that high in over a month. I don't like selling a position when it is on an upward swing and TRMA is moving up right now. It's made about 10% price increase in the past week. I did feel that I had too much of my money tied up in it for too long though. This is the third time I have owned TRMA in the past couple of years. It has a nice little wave that I like to ride occasionally to make a few dollars. It has pretty strong support in the 29-30 area (green arrows on the 2 year chart below), and will peak somewhere between 38 and 42 (pink arrows) before it heads south again.



I purchased it this time around when it was on an upswing (blue arrow around Sept 7th) thinking I would make a quick turn around. Unfortunately, I put my order in at night, went to bed, and spent the past month watching it test support and my resolve. I refused to sell it at a loss, because I knew it would eventually head up again, but when I got the opportunity to sell a portion of it at a profit, I took it. Now it's just a matter of waiting to see how high it goes. This is one of those stocks that I will use the way of the turtle method to find my sell point. I will be looking to sell it once it starts moving down off it's peak. I will expect to start watching it very closely once it hits 38, to see how high it goes before it turns around.

Anyway between that and my MVO post, I believe I am caught up on documenting my busy trading day on Friday.


Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment.

Friday, October 5, 2007

MVO

What a day! The employment data was well received, and my portfolio balance increased by 4.3% today (6.92% ROI month to date). I made several trades, swapping out some positions, and increasing others. My most notable new addition was RIMM, which gapped up today. Sometimes a stocks price will fall after a gap up, but this is a Navellier pick, and I am confident that even if it does dip, it will continue to increase in value.

The stock that I really want to talk about today is MVO. In my opinion, MVO is a good addition as an income investment. Since I need to generate some income from this portfolio for living expenses, I keep a percentage of income investments. HTE has been my number one income producing position. I began purchasing shares in February of this year, and have had 30.9% ROI (45.6% annualized). I enrolled HTE into the DRIP program this week, up until now I had not been reinvesting dividends.

HTE is a Canadian Energy Trust. Trusts avoid paying taxes by distributing a minimum of 90% of their proceeds to shareholders. There is a possibility however, that this tax exemption could end around 2009, 2010. There is also the possibility that the tax exemption is grandfathered in for companies like HTE, but not allowed for newer trusts. Here is a link to HTE's website.

Anyway, that brings us to MVO. MVO is an U.S. oil trust. MVO went public in January of this year. So far distributions since going public have been

12-Jul-07 $ 0.657 Dividend
12-Apr-07 $ 0.533 Dividend
13-Feb-07 $ 1.012 Dividend

Today, MVO announced a 3rd quarter dividend of $.65383330 per unit to shareholders of record on 10/15/07, payable 10/25/07.

Despite this announcement units of this trust actually decreased in price, on news of lower oil futures. I used that as an opportunity to double my position in MVO.

Anyone telling me that they had a little money to invest this month in a stock over a long term (a few years or more) I would recommend this to. First, based on my my postive experience with HTE. Secondly, because it has the same benefits as the Canadian Trusts, without the uncertainty of the tax situation. Thirdly, having gone public just this year, I feel like it is a good opportunity to get in near the ground floor. My understanding of oil companies is that the make money, or they make a lot of money, and in this case, those proceeds are being distributed to unit holders. By investing a set amount each month, you will be purchasing more shares when price is low, and less shares when the price is high, creating a dollar cost averaging. At the current price, this stock has a 10.77% dividend yield.

Unfortunately, perhaps because of it is so new, this stock does not qualify at Ameritrade for the automatic dividend reinvestment, so I would need to do this on my own. That could be prohibitive at a place like Ameritrade, if I did not have a number of free trades that I can make each year. Sharebuilder does not currently provide for the purchase of MVO. I made a request for it today, and will keep you posted as to whether or not they add it.

The chart for MVO looked really good, up until the futures news today. I am expecting this to be only a minor set back, and predict the stock price to rise this next week once people start hearing about the upcoming dividend distribution.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Wish List Update

Well, tomorrow is the day that the employment data comes out, so I am waiting heart in throat to see what happens, and how the market reacts.

A lot of great ideas flew my way today, some I added to my watch list, and some I placed small orders for, as they were just too good for me to resist.

First thing this morning, I bought AFG Dec 30 calls for $1.10 apiece. I have been watching this one for a few weeks since I noticed some heavy insider trading. The stock was showing some resistance at $30.00, and has closed at $30.01. By purchasing call options, I was able to limit the amount of cash I was commiting to the trade, while still giving my self the opportunity to ride this up. The next level of resistance is at $35.00.

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I added NOEC to my watch list yesterday. It continues to hit new highs, with large price swings during throughout the day. It has some support at 6.55, so I have put in an order there. I'm a bit leary about these China stocks, but a lot of the right people have been discussing this one. Louis Navellier whose advice has netted me a 7% roi in the past 10 weeks rates this a buy. That's more than 35% annually. 59% of the shares are owned by insiders or 5% owners. I've got my low ball bid in, and will keep an eye on this one. The chart shows no upward resistance, so it could go ballistic, or it could crash and burn.



Update 10/5/07: I did decrease one of my positions and get in on this one today at $7.70 on some light profit taking.
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Checking the insider trades for yesterday, I found PRX. I like pharmaceuticals, they have some risk to them, so they are exciting. Here is a partial excerpt from Yahoo Financials on PRX.


BUSINESS SUMMARY
Par Pharmaceutical Companies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets generic drugs and branded pharmaceuticals for specialty markets in the United States. The company offers generic prescription drugs comprising approximately 180 products representing various dosage strengths for approximately 80 separate drugs. Its principal generic drug products include fluticasone, amoxicillin, cabergoline, tramadol HCl and acetaminophen, quinapril, fluoxetine, ibuprofen Rx, lovastatin, megestrol oral suspension, cefprozil, paroxetine, mercatopurine, glyburide and metformin HCl, metformin ER, ranitidine, and tizanidine.
The chart on PRX is awful. It gapped down on September 27th. On October 3rd 4 officers and 3 directors purchased a total of 94,300 shares. That's a lot of insiders committing a lot of money to their company. I've got this one on my watch list, and will be monitoring it. I'm looking for a gap fill here. There is not a lot of chatter on the IHUB board about this one, and Navalier rates it a sell. My account is too extended to even buy options on something this risky.



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CMGI got added to my stock list today because the CFO and the President of sales and marketing have purchased 150,000 shares between the two of them. They are planning a 10-1 reverse split in a month. Again this one gapped down. I would like to see it back up above 1.60, as it has no resistance again until about 2.40.




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Well, as you can see I have more ideas than money. It's hard to not jump on every "great stock" I stumble across, but watching them here will help.

Always do your own due diligence before investing, and Good Fortune!

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

AFG

There may not be anything sexy about insurance, but the CEO of American Financial Group seems very fond of his company. He bought 6 million dollars worth of this stock for his family's trust on Friday, to add to the 250, 000 shares he had already purchased in September. Additional big blocks of shares had been purchased in July and August.

AFG insider trades

25% of this company is owned by insiders and 5% share holders. To me this all points to good things for this stock. Technically, the 10 day moving average crossed up over the 50 day moving average during September. I see a little resistance at $30.00, I would like to see it cross that mark.

Because I am still trying to sell off some of some stock, I can't purchase any now, but it is definitely on my wish list list, and I will be watching it closely.

As always, do your own due diligence before purchasing any stock.